Agroclimatic zoning for the incidence of brown eye spot on coffee under climate change scenarios

Brown eye spot (Cercospora coffeicola) is one of the main fungal diseases coffee, leading to a significant drop in crop productivity and beverage quality Brazil. The identification potential risk areas for development disease provides promising information management pathogen. This study aimed elaborate an agroclimatic zoning incidence brown on coffee under climate change scenarios, as suggested by IPCC (IPCC-AR5), coffee-growing regions. Climate data air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity were collected from National Aeronautics Space Administration/Prediction Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER) platform 1989 2020 46 municipalities states Paraná, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Bahia. ideal occurrence consists temperature (Tmean) between 18 30 °C, (RHmean) > 90%, leaf wetness duration (LWD) 9 h. number hours was determined sum with 90%. Relative estimated each hour day using mean dew point maximum humidity, minimum humidity. scenarios designed based sets simulations twenty-first century. Scenario S1 current scenario without changes, while S2 S3 show Tmean + 1.5 °C 3.0 respectively, RHmean changes. Scenarios S4 S5 present varying − 30% 30%, unchanged. In (S1), Gerais presented predominance 100% low September. Paraná medium 76.15% state April. showed increasing average fitness class region, mainly Rio de Janeiro, Paraná. low-risk class. contrast, high-risk region increase C. coffeicola 76%, 100%, 97.83%, 89.30%, 93.46%, 80.64%, 57.77% November May, respectively. presence high represents factor expansion coffeicola. Producers knowing months year places Brazil highest will be able prevent more sustainable way, ecological products, such early application copper.